Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11). In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). What Does Climate Change Look Like? It is therefore important that research focus on these issues. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively. The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. et al.) It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs. The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. The changing climate is indeed the greatest health threat of our time. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). This article is based on the ‘Philippines’ Climate Change Agenda: High Vulnerability! What causes climate change? Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. The report – done at the request of, and in close collaboration with the Climate Change Commission (CCC) and the Department of Budget and … Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province, to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies, to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) Typhoons have a great influence on the climate and weather conditions of the Philippines. Experts and governments must band together to prevent … This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events. Hay fever has major health and economic consequences. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance. Climate change will affect the Philippines disproportionately, targeting those living in poverty, from the local fishing communities to small-scale farmers who only produce enough to support their families. The report entitled Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines looks at the innovations as well as gaps in policy and financing of climate change programs since the country adopted the Climate Change Act four years ago.. The Philippines also lacks natural barriers; as a collection of over 7,000 islands there is almost nothing standing between them and the sea. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes. Smallholder farmers in the Philippines are expected to be among the most vulnerable and impacted by the effects of climate change in the region. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios. According to a 2013 statement from government officials, a destructive typhoon season costs the nation two percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. While agriculture, fisheries and forestry represented about 9 percent of GDP in 2012, they accounted for nearly one-third (32.2 percent) of total employment. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario). One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Climate change and disaster science in the Philippine setting STAR SCIENCE - Maria Helena T. Yap, Ph.D. (The Philippine Star) - February 28, 2013 - 12:00am This is something that more and more countries in the Asia Pacific will be affected by,” said Sta. The ocean then releases some of its heat into the atmosphere, creating wind and rain clouds. Disentangling the role of these various influences helps us understand the capacity of agriculture to adapt to change. A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Changes in crop yield and production over time are driven by a combination of genetics, agronomics, and climate. After a long run of devastating typhoons, the country most affected by climate change is demanding justice Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Current Climate Change in the Philippines, Current Climate Trends in the Philippines. Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050. Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. Natural resources play an important role in the Philippine economy. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes. The truth of climate change is that it makes the weather more dramatic — more fires, more floods, more droughts, more heat, more extremes. Countries such as Honduras saw drought-induced water shortages until it was slammed by hurricanes that caused widespread flooding. Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. This is known as the “Greenhouse Effect”. And when you’re a nation aspiring to grow and create better lives for your citizens, this regular hit to the economy is the last thing you can afford. For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Press, 2013). These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models. The Climate of the Philippines is tropical and maritime. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used: For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. al., 2001). Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate change has become a major threat to the livelihoods of many farmers in the Philippines, particularly among the indigenous groups. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Australia risks being left behind in petrol-fuelled 'parallel world' as other countries embrace electric cars. ... the Climate Change … Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector. NDC Support Project for the Philippines Mainstreaming Sustainable Climate Action within Financial Institutions in the Philippines Resilience and Preparedness towards Inclusive Development Support to the Philippines in Shaping and Implementing the International CC Regime.

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